statistics: applied

The subject of this post is, "statistics: applied".

Roger: don't worry! It's not, "applied statistics". You know that I know nothing about applied stats... You also know that that would not stop me from blogging on the topic :-) But not in *this* blog...

This blog post will be about a single table of statistics which are (is?) relevant to the current theme of the blog: How has that single set of stats affected *me*?

But first -- this being my blog, my style... my purpose -- there will be a whole heap of general stuff. I'll try to remember to put in a heading when the stats stuff starts. To help those who want to skip ahead.

==> let me say this yet again...

I have already written about most of this. I think. I write the blog. I have little interest -- now, anyway -- in reading it. I write in order to clear my mind. Once cleared, my mind can relax, allow me to enjoy something else -- sleep, perhaps. That's the most common benefit. Or the "clearing" allows my mind to move on... to other thoughts.

A thought may recur. Perhaps it's a worry which has returned. I may have forgotten that an old worry has already been documented and "closed". Or I remember my thinking and want to re-analyse. Perhaps I have new information which I want to add to the old, to see if my original conclusions need to be modified. (I'm never wrong. But new information may mean that a new and improved conclusion is now available :-)

Should I read back, find the earlier references, consider and correct? No way!

This blog is a blow-by-blow record of my day-to-day life with terminal brain cancer. My acts, thoughts, feelings on this current adventure. From blog post to post, I may change my mind. My various views -- as at the time of each post -- are important. My then-view on the accuracy of each post, that may be important, to that post. The selection of the most accurate of each of a set of related posts ... is not important at all.

To my reader: You may read my several views on one topic. You may select one as being "right", or as being, "an interesting/helpful view of the topic". I'm glad if it helps you :-) But the reason for this blog is to help *me*. The "correct answer" is not important. Though of course... that may change :-)

Wow... five paragraphs just to say... again... that I may say things again and again :-)

==> the situation, here & now

Yesterday, Sunday, was an enjoyable day. Except for my having a cold. Then, as Deb went to bed, I am a bit moody. Not ready for sleep. Nothing unusual, I can be a moody bugger. I stay up till midnight, to "unwind". That is, I read, write, play, rest, eat, drink... whatever is easy to do. The central theme is to occupy the surface thoughts of my mind. My subconscious may be ticking over. Consciously, though, I am relaxing.

I get a few hours' sleep... wake up... and the mind is busy. Again. No longer "feeling moody", that much has worked :-) Just thinking. "Statistics," I think, "It's time to post my views on statistics." So, 5am, I get up to post about the way in which a single table of stats has helped -- and hindered -- my dealing with brain cancer.

Now it's 6am, I'm ready for... no... Still more to dump before I get to those stats! James Joyce... stream of consciousness... eat your heart out... Words as an aid to... a substitute for... thought. Nah, it's just me. I talk a lot. I write a lot. With the extra excuse that there is no reason -- for me -- to restrict the number of words posted. What a relief!

==> blog post format

See that heading, the line above? Why don't I use "heading one" formatting? I could, you know!

Not everyone reads the web, or emails, with full format display. Some fancy formats may display differently, depending on the screen control software. If I plan to publish several similar versions -- hardcopy, pdf, epub, for example -- each version will look different. Even though I lay it out with "the same" format. If I will be controlling -- fixing -- a single final format, I may spend some time & effort on an "effective" layout.

This blog is about words. Getting the words out of my mind and onto... whatever media is available. Yes, I want the words to be readable. No, I am not trying for an effective / pleasant / appealing format. As long as it can be read -- and makes some sense -- later. Whether or not it *is* read, is not relevant.

So I lay it out in a very simple fashion. Words, words, words... Format, minimal.

==> aspects of my ongoing status

Finally... I (think that I) have reached the subject of, "statistics: applied" ! If you're skipping, searching desperately for those stats... Now You Are Here :-)

I see my status as being in several areas:

... physical

... mental

... emotional

I've considered adding "spiritual". I think that -- in my own interpretation of spiritual status -- it's one way to view one part of "emotional". Important, but not important enough to me -- for a separate category.

So, for this blog: How has that one set of statistics affected:

... my ability to DO (physical)

... my ability to THINK (mental)

... the way in which I FEEL (emotional)

The set of stats behind this post is a table of "real time survival data for patients with" GBM, Glioblastoma Multiforme. That's me, I'm now expected to die from the effects of my GBM. The table is at  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glioblastoma#Prognosis

"According to Wikipedia," I said, "These are the odds of my living for... various amounts of time. I have a 50 percent chance of dying within 12 to 15 months. And only a four percent chance of surviving for another five years...?"

"There are a lot of inaccuracies in Wikipedia," replied the oncologist. "In this case, the statistics are quite accurate."

Did that really happen?! When I now look at that table... Blowed if I can see any figures like that! Yes, I'm certain that the oncologist supported that limited area of accuracy in Wikipedia. Where... when... did I get those 50% and 4% stats?! No idea... Looking -- now -- at that table: What is RPA?! What is KPS?! No idea! No idea what they mean, no idea what my scores would be...

Did the oncologist -- or anyone at all -- ever really support, "I have a 50 percent chance of dying within 12 to 15 months. And only a four percent chance of surviving for a total of five years?" Where did I even get those figures?!

Aaahhh... yes... Now I remember... That was from a table of stats from a more official cancer research site. American. I think that the stats were from and for Americans. Does this ... "mistake" ... matter?

Yes, it matters. It sets me thinking about a whole range of further points to be posted. But does it matter to the effect-of-stats on my status? to the intended topic of this post? Not at all.

This is my memory. I'll lie if I want to :-) Or, to be fair: I'm documenting my actions, thoughts and feelings. If I am wrong, that is a fact which is equally worth documenting. Even better if -- as in this case -- documenting the error leads me closer to the truth... With a bonus chance to analyse and document the difference!

The following facts may be false. They do reflect the overall process. I will try not to repeat, for every statement, that, Of course I could be / have been / may not realise that I am ... remembering nonsense. I will try not to repeat... :-)

==> status pre knowing any stats

I wake up in SCGH. I am soon told -- and quickly accept -- that my brain contains a killer cancer tumour. I need brain surgery or I will die very soon. After successful brain surgery I will die later but still a lot sooner than if I had not had the cancer at all.

status:

... physical: lying still. no urge to move. no pain.

... mental: surprise. interest. feeling alert -- now -- while I realise how much of my "run" I missed. instant acceptance of expert opinion.

... emotional: acceptance. major concern is to make sure that Deb is not waiting for me at wherever. cheered by rapid arrival of and support from family. a very vague feeling that the experts could prove to be too pessimistic.

===> status post finding those stats

status:

... physical: no pain. a bit uncertain on my feet. otherwise feeling "as good as ever".

... mental: I believe and accept that I "could" die very suddenly. feeling as good as ever but, at the same time, knowing that I will tire very quickly. potential decline of physical & mental faculties is my major concern. I wonder how my with-GBM prognosis compares to life expectancies for "the total population". starting to question the usefulness of the stats -- to an individual.

... emotional: relieved that there is no pain. worried more about the family future than my own. glad that it is me dying and not Deb. believe that I am accepting imminent death. nervous but not sure why.

==> status after some explanations

status:

... physical: no pain. walking freely. tiring quickly.

... mental: subconscious mind does not like the wide range of possible life expectancies. accepting that treatment will maintain both life and quality of life. believing that my two cancers are independent.

... emotional: subconscious worry is scaring the conscious mind. a feeling of imminent death is spoiling my mood. don't like to lie on my skull scar (yes, that's emotional). still worried that treatment -- or cancer -- will damage quality of life. no worries about the relationship -- or not -- between the two cancers.

==> status as testicular cancer re-enters the conversation

status:

... physical: no pain. walking well.starting to notice that hard ball again.

... mental: alert as ever. self-centred in conversation (as usual?). realise that a statistical range is too uncertain -- for me. I am planning and acting to prepare for the future but...

... emotional: ... I am planning for death rather than for life(*). scared that testicular cancer -- if spreading -- will cause pain. worried -- but not scared -- that brain cancer could kill me "anytime". reassured that is highly unlikely to be "immediately".

(*) Wow! that's a biggie! My sooner-than-expected death is certain but life -- expectancy -- is *un* certain. So I have been planning for my *death* But unwilling to plan for the admittedly uncertain span of my remaining *life* ! Wow!

So that explains why I was feeling low: nothing to look forward to. It explains the results of my next decision. I reached that biggie conclusion because I am documenting all... Which shows a major benefit of what I am doing. It is worthwhile... for me, at least :-)

I look back (in my mind) at that reasonably accurate table of life expectancy. I pick an optimistic number to right of centre. Make a bold -- and, more importantly, definite -- statement:

I will live for another Three Years plus One Calendar Month plus an Unknown Number of Days.

Further: that statement is a moving target. The end will always be, ... from Today.

The aim is to give me -- and Deb, and anyone else -- a clear... let's call it a Planning Horizon. For expectations and for planning. The 3+1+n is long enough, for example, for my typical holiday planning cycle.

==> status with a "known" life expectancy

status:

... physical: no pain (except that I have a cold). feeling stronger after an actual orienteering course.

... mental: absolutely solid double-think. I know that I could die "anytime" within a narrower range that most other people. I also know that I will die in 3+1+n. still wish that I had that total-population range for comparison.

... emotional: I immediately feel much better. no feeling of contradiction. ready to plan for future *life*. happy to provide a definite statement for friends and family. not worried whether or not I explain the actual level of "certainty". especially pleased when Deb says, Yes, that's good, that helps. feeling smug that *I* won't know when I am finally proven wrong :-)

====

Statistics are useful. Even I can accept that :-) Applied statistics help solve real world problems. Statistics can be of limited use to the individual... because of the essential uncertain predictive nature of "statistics".

So here is an example of the very *successful* application of stats. Informal... wrongly applied... statistical nonsense... Yet it has worked :-)  For me, anyway...

and an extra: When I look back at that table of stats in Wikipedia... okay, I find that I am completely wrong... but also find this statement: "Despite a poor prognosis, there is a small number of survivors who have been GBM free for more than 10–20 years." On every other reading, I missed that.

No, I'm not going to extend my planning horizon to even ten years, that smacks of blind optimism. Or blatant denial of... whatever. I could never maintain my double-think with that sort of ... desperate ... thinking. No, 3+1+n is enough for a very practical improvement in emotional attitude.

But the knowledge that even a few people have survived for 20 years... Makes me even happier with my above-average choice of 3+1+n. It really is .. possible :-)

====

Now much more than a clever name for a holiday journal:

 https://notdotdeaddotyet.blogspot.com.au/  :-)

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Dr Nick Lethbridge / Consulting Dexitroboper
Agamedes Consulting / Problems ? Solved
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​"Humanity had been thrown to the brink of extinction by insane men in positions of power following one another, each thinking the others knew where they were going." … Donald Keene, in Shift